Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.007459 0.008409 0.009449 0.010674 0.012080 0.013648 0.015533
2024-10-13 0.006205 0.007552 0.009159 0.011227 0.013836 0.017040 0.021303
2024-10-20 0.005147 0.006575 0.008374 0.010828 0.014121 0.018434 0.024588
2024-10-27 0.004446 0.005903 0.007821 0.010563 0.014434 0.019783 0.027875
2024-11-03 0.004013 0.005510 0.007556 0.010604 0.015106 0.021636 0.032054
2024-11-10 0.003786 0.005359 0.007589 0.011041 0.016362 0.024441 0.038010
2024-11-17 0.003430 0.004982 0.007248 0.010870 0.016661 0.025807 0.041866
2024-11-24 0.003182 0.004735 0.007065 0.010908 0.017266 0.027698 0.046826
2024-12-01 0.002909 0.004421 0.006746 0.010685 0.017407 0.028818 0.050578
2024-12-08 0.002768 0.004297 0.006709 0.010910 0.018312 0.031330 0.057195
2024-12-15 0.002594 0.004105 0.006541 0.010894 0.018785 0.033120 0.062699
2024-12-22 0.002354 0.003784 0.006133 0.010418 0.018376 0.033232 0.064884
2024-12-29 0.002199 0.003600 0.005949 0.010340 0.018724 0.034878 0.070618
2025-01-05 0.002159 0.003607 0.006095 0.010877 0.020309 0.039165 0.082781
2025-01-12 0.001979 0.003357 0.005767 0.010492 0.020037 0.039652 0.086556
2025-01-19 0.001837 0.003161 0.005519 0.010236 0.019993 0.040602 0.091564
2025-01-26 0.001748 0.003056 0.005428 0.010275 0.020561 0.042940 0.100330
2025-02-02 0.001716 0.003052 0.005524 0.010697 0.021990 0.047387 0.115252
2025-02-09 0.001614 0.002909 0.005343 0.010533 0.022113 0.048849 0.122662
2025-02-16 0.001544 0.002821 0.005262 0.010569 0.022689 0.051460 0.133711
2025-02-23 0.001452 0.002685 0.005074 0.010354 0.022659 0.052576 0.140744
2025-03-02 0.001413 0.002648 0.005083 0.010571 0.023674 0.056458 0.156698
2025-03-09 0.001352 0.002565 0.004991 0.010555 0.024121 0.058940 0.168946